Calculated Risk: ATA Trucking Index decreases slightly in April
by Bill McBride on 5/21/2013 12:39:00 PM
This is a minor indicator that I follow.
From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.2% in April
1
The American Trucking Associations advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.2% in April after rising 0.9% in March. (The 0.9% gain in March was unchanged from what ATA reported on April 23, 2013.) In April, the SA index equaled 123.2 (2000=100) versus 123.5 in March. The highest level on record was December 2011 at 124.3. Compared with April 2012, the SA index was up 4.3%, which is the largest year-over-year gain since January of this year (4.7%). Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2012, the tonnage index is up 4%.
The slight drop in tonnage during April fit with trends from other industries that drive a significant amount of truck freight, such as manufacturing and housing, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, noting that in April, compared with the previous month, factory output slipped 0.4% while housing starts plunged 16.5%.
After rising significantly late last year and in January of this year, truck tonnage has been bouncing around a narrow, but elevated band over the last three months. he said. It is also worth noting that the year-over-year comparisons are much better than expected just a few months ago and I m hearing good comments about freight so far in May.
emphasis added
Note from ATA:
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes. 
Click on graph for larger image.
Here is a long term graph that shows ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.
The dashed line is the current level of the index.
The index is fairly noisy, but is up solidly year-over-year.
References
- ^ ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.2% in April (www.truckline.com)
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Calculated Risk: ATA Trucking Index rebounds in November
by Bill McBride on 12/21/2012 02:52:00 PM
This is a minor indicator that I follow. Truck tonnage was negatively impacted by Hurricane Sandy in October, and bounced back in November.
From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rebounds 3.7% in November
1
The American Trucking Associations advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 3.7% in November erasing October s 3.7% drop. (The 3.7% decrease in October was revised from a 3.8% contraction ATA reported on November 20, 2012.) November s gain was the first since July of this year. As a result, the SA index equaled 118.0 (2000=100) in November versus 113.8 in October. Compared with November 2011, the SA index was up 1%, after contracting 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in October. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 2.8%.
…
Sandy impacted both October s and November s tonnage readings, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. But it was still good to see tonnage snap back in November. Costello said he expects a boost to flatbed tonnage from the rebuilding in the areas impacted by Sandy, but most of that won t happen until the spring when the money starts flowing and the weather is conducive to building.
Outside of Sandy, if the fiscal cliff isn t fixed in time, expect a slowdown in tonnage early next year as paychecks shrink for all households, Costello said. Since trucks account for the vast majority of deliveries in the retail supply, any reduction in consumer spending will hurt. Costello added that even if we don t go off the fiscal cliff, he expects slower tonnage growth in 2013 than 2012 as better housing starts and auto sales will be offset by slower factory output and consumer spending.
emphasis added
Note from ATA:
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes. 
Click on graph for larger image.
Here is a long term graph that shows ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.
The dashed line is the current level of the index.
Overall the index has been mostly moving sideways this year due to the slowdown in manufacturing.
References
- ^ ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rebounds 3.7% in November (www.truckline.com)
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Calculated Risk: ATA Trucking Index increases in September
by Bill McBride on 10/23/2012 01:58:00 PM
Note: ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello says, for trucking, the pickup in housing is offsetting the “flattening in manufacturing output”.
From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 0.4% in September
1
The American Trucking Associations advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in September after falling 0.9% in August. In September, the SA index equaled 118.7 (2000=100). The level in September was the same as in January 2012, so the index has been on a flat trend-line over the past 9 months. Compared with September 2011, the SA index was 2.4% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009.
…
The year-over-year deceleration in tonnage continued during September, although I was encouraged that the seasonally adjusted index edged higher from August, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. Costello noted again this month that the acceleration in housing starts, which is helping truck tonnage, is being countered by a flattening in manufacturing output and elevated inventories throughout the supply chain.”
emphasis added
Note from ATA:
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
Click on graph for larger image.
Here is a long term graph that shows ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.
The dashed line is the current level of the index. The index is above the pre-recession level and up 2.4% year-over-year – but has been mostly moving sideways in 2012.
References
- ^ ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 0.4% in September (www.truckline.com)
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Oil price 'fix' must be investigated by regulators Automotive …
REGULATORS should investigate claims that global oil prices are fixed by banks and traders thus impacting on the forecourt price of petrol and diesel.
Allegations of oil price manipulation come amid a furore over the rigging of Libor, the interest rate measure, by traders at Barclays.
Claims that oil prices were fixed came in a report from the G20, the group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 major countries, which warned that the market was wide open to manipulation or distortion .
It argues that those involved in oil trading had an incentive to distort the market and were likely to try to report false prices.
A spokesman for Prime Minister David Cameron was reported in The Daily Telegraph (July 17) as saying: The important thing is that we have efficient and fair markets. And if there is evidence that any market is being manipulated then that is a matter for the regulators, and those regulators should look at it very carefully.
Brian Madderson, chairman of theRMIPetrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents independent forecourts across theUK, said: PRA has been concerned for some time about the lack of transparency in wholesale road fuel pricing which could be affected by any abuse of the systems used by price reporting companies.
RMIPetrol submitted a detailed report to the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) earlier this year, alleging anti-competitive pricing across theUKbased on evidence gathered from their members.
We highlighted potential flaws in price referencing systems as one of the fuel price mechanisms needing proper investigation. Businesses, motorists and independent retailers all need much greater price transparency and we on called the Government to support the request for the OFT study.
Disappointingly, our request for a new market study has been provisionally turned down by the OFT. We strongly believe that such a market study is urgently needed to review and resolve many issues that impact retail road fuel prices.
Geoff Dunning, chief executive of the Road Haulage Association, said: The price of oil dictates the price we pay for all fuel types. To learn that there is a possibility of oil traders worldwide manipulating the price comes as little surprise, given the recent news that our own financial system was rigged for the benefit of the banks.
We find it quite baffling that the oil market, as one of the world s key commodity sectors, is unregulated and appears to rely, to a great extent, on the honesty of the trader to return accurate data regarding their activities.
The G20 revelation which has found the oil market to be wide open to manipulation or distortion must be acted upon as a matter of urgency. How many more financial stones must be overturned before we can see a fair financial system in which we can place our confidence?
This country is trying to battle its way out of recession. If we cannot trust those who set the price for the life-blood of our industry, what hope is there for the rest of the economy?
Quentin Willson, a motoring expert at campaign group FairFuelUK said any deliberate fiddling of the figures by financial institutions and traders will have costUKconsumers millions in unnecessary expenditure .
These dark and devious forces should be held to account and an investigation into oil price manipulation started immediately, he said.
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